Agriculture, Economic Development and Tourism

16. (1) (a)   The industry estimates between 210 and 215 million 15kg cartons of oranges, lemons, mandarins and grapefruit at a national level. Which is an increase of approximately 3% to 5% when compared to the 2025 volumes of 203.4 million 15kg cartons.

While the overall production trend is positive for South Africa, things are more modest for the Western Cape in particular, which accounts for 20% of total under citrus production. According to estimates for the southern growing areas of both the Eastern and Western Cape, the production of Valencia oranges is expected to decline by between 7% and 20%, primarily due to the drier weather during summer months as well as alternate bearing. Similarly, there will also be declines in the early soft citrus category, with 3% fewer Nova mandarins and 4% fewer Clementines produced this season, both categories for which the Western Cape is leading.

Moreover, recent floods occurring in the Western and Eastern Cape Provinces, especially Citrusdal, created an additional problem, which is sure to have a major impact on soft citrus production since it was the time of early harvesting of mandarins. As a representative of CGA says, it is "a huge setback," especially at the current moment, as there are other problems, including reduced demand for fruits from the Middle East market, increased costs, as well as a dispute with the EU about the issue of their phytosanitary standards. However, there is a bit of good news for South African producers in terms of April 2026, as Chinese authorities are relaxing requirements on the cold treatment of South African citrus and applying zero tariffs. Overall, citrus production in the Western Cape Province of 2026 can be deemed to be quite normal, especially after last year's successful harvest when South Africa became the leading producer of citrus, exporting 2.9 million tonnes of its products.

(b)  The standard of performance that was witnessed in 2025 was not easy to surpass. For instance, the record number of citrus fruits exported in 2025 reached 203.4 million 15kg cartons, indicating an increase of 22% from the number of citrus fruits exported in 2024, due to the contribution of the Western Cape Province, particularly for the Nadorcott/Tango mandarins and navels. However, considering that this has been such an excellent season, the outlook is bleak for the next season, especially for certain fruits produced in the Western Cape. For example, the production of Valencia fruits from the Southern regions of the Eastern and Western Cape Provinces will decline by between 7% and 20%, compared to those produced in 2025 due to dry seasons and alternate bearing, but will still be more than the amount produced in 2024.

The reason it is so striking in comparison is because 2025 had near ideal weather throughout the entire Western Cape, thus providing a very good basis for comparison. The drop in Nadorcott/Tango volumes for 2026 is caused by slightly lower yields forecasted for both the Eastern and Western Cape provinces, as compared to the excellent yield of the previous season. The effects of drought have been felt in other ways as well, such as the quality of fruit sizes and packout rates, which are essential in terms of whether the produce will be exported. In other words, the harvesting of 2026 in the Western Cape can best be viewed not as a bad year but simply as a lesser year than last year's record-breaking yields.

16. (2) (a)   The top five export destination markets for WC citrus in 2025 were the Netherlands (22%), the Russian Federation (12%), the United Kingdom (11%), United Arab Emirates (9%) and United States (7%). Europe accounts for 45% of Western Cape’s citrus exports.

Some of these importing markets are also faced with considerable uncertainty in 2026. The Middle Eastern conflict will impact demand, shipping lanes, and oil prices, while the ongoing EU phytosanitary issue is costing the industry R3.7 billion annually. The US tariff on South African fruits, now set at 10%, down from 30%, expires in July 2026, adding to the uncertainty in what has been one of the most important premium markets in the Western and Northern Cape.

16. (2) (b) (i) The November 2025 decision by the United States to exempt oranges from the 30% tariff has been positively received by the South African citrus industry. The exemption restores the competitiveness of South African oranges in the United States market, which is an important counter seasonal destination for exports. Although the tariff was introduced late in the 2025 export season and therefore had limited immediate impact due to the acceleration of shipments prior to its implementation, it created uncertainty within the sector.

The exemption is expected to have a more significant positive impact from the 2026 export season onwards. It supports export volumes, sustains market access, and contributes to the preservation of employment across the citrus value chain, particularly in production and logistics. The United States market continues to offer growth potential, and the removal of the tariff on oranges reinforces longer term trade opportunities and strengthens supply stability between South Africa and the United States.

(ii) Recent developments indicate that, following a United States Supreme Court ruling in January 2026, the 30% tariff that had been applied to citrus products was removed and replaced with a uniform international tariff of 10% applicable to all trading partners, including key competitors such as Chile and Peru. This development has contributed to a more level playing field in the United States market and has improved the relative competitiveness of South African citrus exports, including mandarins. This created a more even playing field to supply the USA for all of which the time period favours the market timing for the Western Cape.

The adjustment to a uniform tariff structure is particularly beneficial to the Western Cape, as the province supplies citrus to the United States during a favourable counter seasonal window. This timing advantage supports continued market access and reduces some of the competitive disadvantages previously associated with higher tariff barriers. However, some risks remain. The current tariff regime is subject to potential changes, and there remains uncertainty regarding the possibility of higher tariffs being reintroduced in future. So-called "Section 301", "Section 232" and "Section 338" tariffs can still legally be imposed on South Africa, should the US decide to do so. Such changes could negatively affect export planning, investment decisions, and market stability within the citrus sector.

It is also important to note that all tariff decisions by the US executive branch supersede any measures of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). In summary, while the recent tariff adjustment has reduced immediate risks and improved competitiveness, the potential for future tariff changes continues to pose a degree of uncertainty for the Western Cape citrus industry.